It’s Come To A Screeching Halt… Or Has It?

Talking with one of my friends the other day, he mentioned how he heard on the news that the housing recovery has come to a screeching halt. He claimed that they (the media) are blaming it on climbing mortgage interest rates, and a lack of consumer confidence. I know that’s not true about interest rates, (click here for historical rates) but what about consumer confidence? I wasn’t sure myself from all the things I’ve heard as well, so off I went to verify.

I don’t have the ability to verify a lack of consumer confidence over all, however I do have the ability to verify consumer confidence in real estate, specifically real estate in Clark County, Nevada, and if there’s one thing I do know, and have… it’s the knowledge, and data to crunch those numbers.

Here they are: From May 8th, 2008, around the beginning of the so called “housing recovery”, through May 7th, 2014, six full years of data, there has been 262,256 resale single family residences sold in Clark County through the Multiple Listing Service. This includes single family homes, condos, townhomes, manufactured homes, and high rise condos.  That divided by 365 days a year equals an average of 32,782 homes sold per year, or 89.81 homes sold per day.

In the last month from April 8th, 2014 through May 7th, 2014 (the last full day of propagated sales) there were 3,338 single family residences sold, or 111.26 homes sold per day. This is not a "screeching halt" or “a lack of consumer confidence”, it's more like "burning rubber", and positive consumer confidence.

Now, in fairness to the media, and my friend, according to the latest Existing Home Sales Report, (click here for report) from the National Association of Realtors, annualized sales in March stand at 4.59 million, down from 4.96 million the same time last year, a 7.5% decline. Is this a lack of consumer confidence? Maybe, but consider the slowest reporting months of the year begin in November and end in April. Is this a lack of confidence or seasonal adjustments?

Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, said he expects some improvement in the months ahead. “With ongoing job creation and some weather delayed shopping activity, home sales should pick up, especially if inventory continues to improve and mortgage interest rates rise only modestly.” I don't see a lack of consumer confidence in Mr. Yun's outlook... Do you?

So, if you are considering whether or not to purchase or sell a home here in Clark County, don't let the news scare you. There are purchasers in the market, and they are BUYING… to the tune of 111 homes a day right now! 

In conclusion, what I have done is bring the truth to my friend, and hopefully to you!